NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market has entered its fifth year Monday, following four years of consecutive gains. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has surged approximately 119% from its bear-market closing low of October 12, 2022. That session marked its weakest finish since November 2020 at 3,577.03. By Friday, the index closed at 7,811.54, reflecting a 14.1% increase for 2026, with a weekly gain of 1.2%.
This marks the 11th bull market since the 1950s in the historical record, and the seventh to last at least four years. The 119% gain lags behind the average 184% rise observed across previous cycles. Notably, the 2009-to-2020 rally soared 401%, while the 1987-to-2000 advance achieved 582%, ranking among the strongest long-term gains in history.
Historical data shows that performance during the fifth year has generally been positive, though results differ across cycles. Out of the past 10 bull markets, six extended beyond their fourth anniversary. For those reaching the fifth year, average returns have been around 12%, with a median of 15%. The analysis also indicates an average maximum drawdown of approximately 14% during fifth years, but these figures are based on past cycles and do not predict the current trajectory.
Market Growth Supported by Corporate Earnings
Earnings remain a key factor behind the ongoing market strength. FactSet reports that third-quarter S&P 500 profits as of October 9 are 29.6% higher than the same period last year. This would mark the third consecutive quarter with earnings growth exceeding 25%. At the end of September, estimates stood at 29.2%. Of the 19 companies that have reported earnings, 84% surpassed analyst projections, with their combined earnings beating estimates by 4.9%.
Analysts foresee continued strong profit growth through the end of 2026. Fourth-quarter earnings are projected to increase 27.6% year-over-year, with full-year earnings growth estimated at 32.4%. About 40% of the upward revisions to 2026 earnings come from semiconductor and hardware firms, and Barclays research indicates these companies account for roughly 75% of revisions to 2027 estimates. Technology-related companies thus remain significant in current earnings revisions.
Interest Rates and Elevated Yields Mark the Fifth Year
The upward market trend continues amid rising interest rates and high U.S. government bond yields. The Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, citing solid economic growth and persistent inflation. September projections forecast median 2026 economic growth at 2.3% and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled for October 27–28.
Long-term Treasury yields remain elevated as the market enters its fifth year of gains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 5.24% on October 9, with the 30-year at 5.60%. Despite the higher yields, the S&P 500 gained 0.6% that day, closing at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite moved up by 0.6%. U.S. equities are now approaching record levels, supported by strong earnings and higher borrowing costs.